The USD is off to a mixed start today, with EURUSD and GBPUSD trading lower, indicating a stronger USD, while USDJPY is also down, suggesting a softer USD against the JPY. As we approach the North American session and the end of the week, the focus shifts to whether these currency pairs can break out of their tight ranges and establish a clearer directional trend.
EURUSD: Traders Await a Breakout from a Tight Weekly Range
EURUSD remains confined to a narrow 70-pip range this week, signaling an uncertain market. This compression often precedes a significant move. The key question is whether buyers or sellers will force a breakout and expand the range.
On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1830 and 1.1834, the midpoint of the recent move. A sustained move above this zone would increase the bullish bias, with targets at 1.1860 and 1.1889, the broken 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range.
However, until these levels are cleared, upside momentum remains limited.
On the downside, support levels are at 1.1765-1.1778, the swing area floor for the week, 1.1741, last week's double bottom, and 1.1691, where the 100-day MA comes into play. A break below the weekly floor could increase downside momentum.
EURUSD Outlook: Range-Bound, but Building Pressure
EURUSD is range-bound, but pressure is building. A decisive move outside the 70-pip range could trigger a stronger directional move.
USDJPY: Failed Breakout Shifts Momentum Lower
USDJPY is correcting earlier gains after failing to sustain a breakout. The pair rallied above the 156.20-156.28 swing area and broke through a topside trendline near 156.60, but the move was short-lived. Price rotated lower into the close.
Today, price broke back below 156.20, reaching a low of 155.72, before bouncing. The key pivot level remains 156.20-156.28, which now acts as resistance.
If price moves back above 156.28 and holds, buyers regain control. If price stays below 156.20, sellers maintain the advantage. On further downside pressure, the next target is the rising 100-hour MA near 155.47.
USDJPY Outlook: Short-Term Bias Lower, Unless Buyers Reclaim the 156.20-156.28 Zone
The failed breakout shifts the short-term bias lower, but buyers need to reclaim the 156.20-156.28 zone to reverse this.
GBPUSD: Buyers Defending Short-Term Support
GBPUSD made a new Asian session high, breaking above yesterday's high near 1.3565 and reaching 1.3575. However, it stalled just ahead of the swing resistance zone between 1.3582 and 1.3590.
In the European session, price rotated lower, breaking below the 200-hour MA at 1.3526 and moving under the 1.3526-1.3537 swing area. It found support ahead of the rising 100-hour MA at 1.3512. The pair has since rebounded and is now trading above 1.3536.
Holding above the reclaimed swing area keeps buyers in short-term control. A move back below would shift focus to the 100-hour MA. A break above 1.3575 would bring the 1.3582-1.3590 resistance zone back into play.
GBPUSD Outlook: Buyers Active, but Upside Momentum Needs to Clear 1.3580
Buyers remain active, but upside momentum needs to clear the 1.3580 area to strengthen the bullish case.
North American Session Focus
These pairs are sitting near inflection points: EURUSD is compressed within its weekly range, USDJPY is testing sellers after a failed breakout, and GBPUSD is holding reclaimed support.
As we move into the North American session and towards the weekly close, watch for range expansion and momentum confirmation around the key technical levels outlined above.
And this is the part most people miss... these currency pairs are at a critical juncture. Will they break out of their ranges and establish a clear direction? Or will they continue to trade sideways? What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments!
